In June 2007, the Portland Trail Blazers were at a critical point in their history, having the opportunity to choose between two exceptional prospects with the first overall pick in the draft.
Greg Oden, a dominant center from Ohio State, and Kevin Durant, an outstanding scorer from the University of Texas. Both players were praised as upcoming talents with the potential to change the league's landscape.
After careful consideration, the Blazers decided on Oden. What ensued turned into a detailed examination of the dangers involved in the draft, how injuries can hinder potential success, and how one choice can alter the course of entire franchises and, consequently, the NBA as a whole.
The Hype and Promise of Greg Oden
Prior to the 2007 NBA Draft, Greg Oden was widely recognized as the top prospect, praised as a once-in-a-generation talent whose abilities aligned perfectly with the NBA's traditional blueprint for creating championship-winning squads. At a height of 7 feet and with a wingspan of 7'5", Oden was not only physically impressive but also served as a defensive leader, excelling in rim protection, rebounding, and disrupting opponents' offensive strategies. Analogies to Hall of Fame centers such as Bill Russell and David Robinson were frequent, as experts saw him as the main building block for a new era in Portland.
Oden's single year at Ohio State was incredibly dominating. Even while dealing with a wrist injury, which required him to shoot free throws using his non-dominant hand, he still managed to maintain an average of 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks per game. His influence on defense was game-changing, leading the Buckeyes to the NCAA Championship Game, ultimately losing to a skilled Florida team. Many scouts were convinced by watching Oden block shots and scare opponents in the paint that he was not just a good prospect, but a certain bet - a player who would change the franchise and bring the Blazers back to the top.
In the league's past, there were many instances of dominant center players who guided their teams to championships, including Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Constructing a team with a strong focal point was considered the key to long-term prosperity. Therefore, the Blazers' decision to select Oden instead of Durant, a very skilled but comparatively slender wing player, was widely praised. Media platforms, experts evaluating drafts, and supporters all concurred with the decision, regarding Oden as the more secure choice with greater potential. Many believed the opportunity to acquire a defensive leader who could revolutionize the interior defense was too valuable to ignore.
During that period, NBA teams continued to highly prioritize dominant centers. The league has a rich history of dominant big men such as Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who have guided their teams to championships. Constructing a team focused on a strong central figure was viewed as the key to long-term prosperity. Therefore, the decision by the Blazers to select Oden instead of Durant, who was a very skilled but somewhat slim wing player, was widely supported. Media sources, draft experts, and supporters all generally agreed with the selection, seeing Oden as the more secure choice with greater potential. Many believed that it would be foolish to ignore the chance to acquire a defensive leader who could completely change the game inside the key.
The Contrast with Kevin Durant
This is not to suggest that Kevin Durant didn't have fans. In contrast, Durant had finished an impressive first year at Texas, posting 25.8 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, while showcasing a rare combination of size, shooting ability, and ball-handling talent. He was praised for his ability to score in various ways and offensive potential as he made history by being the first freshman to win the Naismith College Player of the Year Award in NCAA. Yet, there were concerns regarding Durant's slight build - being 6'10" and weighing under 200 pounds - and his capability to withstand the physical demands of the NBA. The prevailing belief at the time was to focus on strong centers, giving Oden an advantage.
Drafted as the second overall pick by the Seattle SuperSonics, KD immediately showed his worth. During his first year in the league, Durant scored an average of 20.3 points per game, demonstrating a smooth scoring talent and excellent shooting skills from long range unusual for a forward standing at 6'10". He received the Rookie of the Year award and promptly proved himself as one of the best players in the league. In 2010, Durant had become the top scorer in the NBA, a title he would secure four times in his career.
Durant's influence extended beyond his impressive scoring statistics. He turned the Thunder from a team with financial struggles in a small market into a strong competitor. With his teammates Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka, Durant helped Oklahoma City reach the NBA Finals in 2012, but they were defeated by Miami Heat's trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. Despite not making it to the Finals again after Durant left, the Thunder's success was a clear indication of his skill and guidance. When Durant joined the Golden State Warriors in 2016, he was already recognized as one of the best players in basketball history after leaving Oklahoma City.
The Impact on the Blazers and the Thunder
Selecting Oden over Durant in the draft changed Portland's path and transformed the competitive balance in the Western Conference. If the Blazers had chosen Durant, a lineup with him, LaMarcus Aldridge, and a healthy Brandon Roy had the potential to compete with top teams like the Lakers and Spurs. The trio of Durant's scoring prowess, Aldridge's inside presence, and Roy's versatile skills could potentially help Portland establish dominance in the Western Conference for an extended period.
Instead of that, the Thunder took advantage of Durant's brilliance. Durant was the central figure for the franchise, consistently leading Oklahoma City to the playoffs and setting a blueprint for finding and nurturing star players through the draft. Durant's time in OKC was beneficial for the league, demonstrating how small-market teams can create successful teams with smart draft picks and developing players. The Thunder's achievements offered encouragement to other teams, showing that they too could succeed through strategic decisions.
Durant’s Move to Golden State and the Superteam Era
Durant's move to the Golden State Warriors in 2016 was another significant moment in NBA history, stemming indirectly from Portland's key decision in 2007. Durant's decision resulted in the formation of one of the most powerful teams in the history of the league. Next to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, Durant played a key role in guiding the Warriors to back-to-back championships in 2017 and 2018, securing two consecutive Finals MVP honors. This period of superteams has ignited strong discussions about fairness in competition, player influence, and changes in the league's environment.
On the other hand, Portland kept striving for stability and success. Despite Damian Lillard's rise to prominence and success in leading the Blazers to the playoffs and receiving several All-NBA honors, the franchise has still not reached the potential heights it could have attained with Durant. The decision to pick Oden over Durant still weighs heavily on Portland fans, serving as a reminder of untapped potential and the harsh reality of the sports world.
The Legacy and Lessons of the 2007 Draft
The challenge of assessing talent and predicting future success in the NBA is highlighted in the 2007 draft decision. During that period, it was believed that it was better to choose powerful centers instead of talented wings. Past experiences indicated that successful teams often centered around dominant big men like Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, and Hakeem Olajuwon. However, the league's shift towards faster play, increased spacing, and reliance on outside shooting unexpectedly highlighted Durant's unique skills. Portland's decision shows how player growth and injuries can unexpectedly change the direction of teams.
The Blazers' experience with Oden serves as a reflection of how unpredictable potential can be, the constraints of human judgment, and the brutal truths of professional athletics. However, Durant's ascent demonstrates the importance of persistence, flexibility, and exceptional talent in improving teams and engaging supporters. Their stories combine to create a dual perspective on fate, decisions, and the lasting impact of "what if" in the shared memory of NBA history.
Conclusion
Choosing Greg Oden over Kevin Durant in 2007 was a major moment in recent NBA history for the Portland Trail Blazers. It is a story of optimism and sadness, of harm and rise, and of how one choice can impact a whole organization. Even though Oden's career illustrates unfulfilled potential, Durant's legacy showcases achieved greatness. Together, they demonstrate how the draft can serve as a platform for success, as well as a risky endeavor full of unpredictability, influencing stories and reshaping the course of history through each selection.
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